Trump May Not Like Wind Power, But Stargate AI Plan is a Boon for GE Vernova
Shares of GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) rallied to another record close, buoyed by optimism surrounding the company’s potential to benefit from President Donald Trump’s ambitious Stargate AI initiative aimed at expanding America’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. This optimism has persisted even as the company faces challenges in its wind business, which contributes approximately 30% to its revenue. Despite a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report that fell short of expectations, investor confidence remains robust.
Stock Performance Amidst Mixed Earnings Report
On Wednesday, GE Vernova’s stock surged 3% in midday trading, indicating a potential sixth consecutive day of record closings. Over the past six sessions, the stock has climbed an impressive 16.8%, and since the pivotal November 5 presidential election, it has soared 35.7%. Analysts and investors are rallying around the promise that the Stargate initiative will diversify the company’s business model and invigorate demand, particularly in sectors aside from wind energy.
Management’s Insights on Future Demand
During a post-earnings call with analysts, GE Vernova’s management highlighted their expectation that “the diversity of demand just continues to get stronger,” particularly in its pipeline, gas, and electric-grid enterprises. Chief Executive Scott Strazik noted a marked increase in market demand for gas generation, attributed to the surge in data-center hyperscaler requirements linked to AI advancements. Furthermore, he mentioned an uptick in conversations with customers about nuclear energy, indicating a proactive approach to leveraging existing technologies within the U.S.’s established nuclear infrastructure.
Wind Business Challenges and Future Projections
Although management acknowledged the headwinds facing their wind sector, they project financials to remain relatively flat over the next few years. “We’re cautious,” they stated, calling attention to their long-standing vigilance concerning this segment. The company reported total orders across its business segments had surged 20.5% year-over-year, reaching a record $13.37 billion, largely driven by a staggering 118.2% jump in electrification orders, along with a 20.2% increase in power orders. However, the wind segment faced a considerable decline, with orders dropping by 41.2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to tough year-over-year comparisons following a significant U.S. onshore wind order recorded in fourth-quarter 2023.
Breaking Down the Fourth Quarter Results
In the quarter ending December 31, GE Vernova achieved total revenue growth of 5.1%, hitting a record $10.56 billion, although it fell short of the FactSet consensus estimate of $10.7 billion. Among the company’s various business segments, wind revenue showed some signs of resilience, rising 20.2% to $3.11 billion, exceeding the FactSet forecast of $3.02 billion. However, the power revenue segment declined by 2.9%, reaching $5.43 billion, underperforming against the expected $5.63 billion. Additionally, electrification revenue rose 11% year-over-year to $2.18 billion but fell slightly short of the $2.21 billion forecast.
Net Income and Cash Flow Performance
GE Vernova’s net income for the fourth quarter saw a significant increase, climbing to $484 million, or $1.73 per share, up from $197 million, or 72 cents per share, a year ago. However, the FactSet consensus estimate for earnings per share was $2.30, indicating another miss. Free cash flow also dipped to $572 million from $1.65 billion, just short of expectations for $580.4 million.
Looking Ahead: Maintaining Guidance Amidst Uncertainty
Despite the mixed results and challenges, GE Vernova maintained its 2025 guidance, standing firm on its expectation for full-year revenues between $36 billion to $37 billion. This outlook compares favorably against the 2024 revenue forecast of $34.94 billion, with anticipated growth in power and electrification segments expected to mitigate the wind sector’s downturn. The company has also reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance of $2 billion to $2.5 billion.
“We had a strong finish to 2024 as we execute our strategy to deliver disciplined revenue growth with increased profitability and positive cash generation,” remarked Chief Financial Officer Ken Parks.
Since spinning off from the former General Electric Co. (now GE Aerospace) in April 2024, GE Vernova’s stock has surged by 55%, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which only added 4.2% during the same period.